Politics 101 Malaysia

Speculation on where Anwar Ibrahim would contest a by-election was further fuelled last night when he told a crowd of over 15,000 at Melawati Stadium in Shah Alam that he would name the constituency “within the next two weeks”.

“I’m not announcing the location yet because I don’t want to be immediately taken into custody the next day. I don’t want to be campaigning from behind bars,” he told the crowd, reports The Malay Mail today.

While Pakatan Rakyat leaders were tight-lipped, speculation was rife that Permatang Pauh, the parliamentary seat held by Anwar’s wife, Datin Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, was the likeliest constituency.

Wan Azizah is also Parti Keadilan Rakyat’s (PKR) president.

An aide to a Barisan Nasional minister said many believe Anwar would now contest in Permatang Pauh. “Speculation was rife that he was eyeing the Bandar Tun Razak seat (held by Selangor Menteri Besar Tan Sri Abdul Khalid Ibrahim) but recent events seem to indicate that that would be risky,” said the aide.

The aide said that ousted BN candidate, Datuk Tan Chai Ho, had been getting complaints from Bandar Tun Razak constituents that Khalid, who also holds the State seat of Ijok, had not serviced them well since he won the parliamentary seat.

“Quite a number of constituents, especially Indian voters, have approached Tan to voice their dissatisfaction over Khalid’s decision to leave the running of Bandar Tun Razak to an aide,” he said, adding that Indian voters had tipped the results in Khalid’s favour as they were, at the time, upset with “MIC and Hindraf issues”.

“Contesting in Bandar Tun Razak would be risky for Anwar. He would also have to consider the fact that Tan has not stopped servicing the residents there despite losing the seat to Khalid.

He’s ready, and he knows the issues there well, having served for four terms.” The aide said Lembah Pantai, the parliamentary seat held by Anwar’s daughter Nurul Izzah, was also risky as there have been claims that she has also not performed well. “We believe that he is gunning for Permatang Pauh. It is the safest seat, and word has it that Wan Azizah wants to give up her political career and the party presidency to her husband.” The aide said Anwar could contest in another by-election if he falters on his first try, but that “would not be a wise move”.

“If he loses a by-election, and then decides to contest in another by-election, he would lose credibility.

He can opt to contest in Selangor or Perak, but we believe that the safest bet for him is Permatang Pauh.

“Permatang Pauh has been a PKR stronghold for some time now. The issue of why he should sacrifice a seat already in PKR’s bag when he has a chance of wresting away a seat held by BN doesn’t arise as it is a wellknown fact that Anwar wants to be in Parliament.” A political analyst has also placed his money on Permatang Pauh.

“Wan Azizah is a reluctant politician. Talk is rife that she wants Anwar to take over so that she can focus on her family and have a semblance of normalcy in her life again.” He said Kuala Kangsar was a “distant possibility”.

Anwar had announced that he would be contesting there, but quite a number of analysts have dismissed it as a red herring as it would not be easy to unseat the incumbent.

The seat is currently held by Wanita Umno head, Tan Sri Rafidah Aziz.

However, she may lose the seat pending the decision of the High Court on an election petition filed by a voter in Ipoh in April, seeking to declare null and void the result of the Kuala Kangsar parliamentary seat.

The voter had called into question the decision of returning of f icer Datuk Mohd Razali Jalal, who accepted Rafidah’s nomination papers despite her not signing two of the three nomination forms.

Rafidah won the seat by a majority of 1,458 votes, defeating Perak Pas deputy commissioner Dr Khairuddin Abd Malik.

Another analyst said a byelection, however, would not be easy for Anwar.

“The whole BN machinery will be focused on just one constituency. The BN machinery is well-oiled, and they will exhaust all resources to give Anwar a tough time, no matter where he stands.”